CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: A FIXED THRESHOLDS-BASED INDEX ANALYSIS

Tatjana Popov, Slobodan Gnjato, Goran Trbić

Abstract


The paper analyzes trends in the extreme temperature indices based on fixed thresholds in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1961–2016. Based on data from 12 meteorological stations, trends in both warm and cold temperature indices were determined using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator. The observed tendencies in indices based on fixed thresholds were as expected in a warming world – warm temperature indices (summer days, tropical days and tropical nights) displayed the significant positive trends, whereas cold temperature indices (icing days and frost days) showed the downward tendencies. The annual occurrence of summer days and tropical days increased on average for 5.3 and 4.8 days per decade, respectively, whereas icing days and frost days displayed downward trends in the range of -1.7 and -3.6 days per decade, respectively. The obtained results indicate that the climate system warming was more a result of very pronounced positive trends in the warm temperature indices than the downward tendency of cold ones. The most prominent changes were observed in Banja Luka, Bugojno and Zenica regions. Both trends, positive in warm indices and negative in cold ones, become more pronounced in the 1990s and particularly since the beginning of the 21st century. Further research should focus on the assessment of the observed trends impacts on natural and socio-economic systems.

Keywords


temperature; indices based on fixed thresholds; trend; climate change; Bosnia and Herzegovina

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1801017P

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